National Power and Lights at Night: Veterans for Smart Power

Like Groucho Marx, I would rarely join any group that would have me as a member. That being said, I am a member of the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition (USGLC), specifically the Veterans for Smart Power faction. The USGLC is a “broad-based influential network of 400 businesses and NGOs; national security and foreign policy experts; and business, faith-based, academic and community leaders in all 50 states who support a smart power approach of elevating diplomacy and development alongside defense in order to build a better, safer world”. Veterans for Smart Power is for “veterans of all ages and ranks who share a commitment to elevating and strengthening our non-military tools of global engagement – alongside our military – so we can build a better, safer, more prosperous America and world”. My particular focus is on using all the elements of national power (economic, military, political and information) to promote the proliferation of clean, distributed energy in developing countries so that they do not become havens for terrorist organizations. When you turn the lights on, the cockroaches scatter.

As Kissinger said, America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests. Our interest in other countries is as markets or as sources of raw materials, goods and/or services. It is in our interest to help foster the maturation of developing countries so that their economies are markets driven, their security assured, their people are represented and their press is free. Under these circumstances, nations tend to become good trading partners and all boats rise.

If you look at the map of the world above it shows you where the Pentagon thinks the 21st century wars will occur. What is most informative is if you look at that same map at night. Inside the zone, very little light at night. Light at night means kids can study, small manufacturing can occur and women need not travel far to gather wood for fires. Light at night is the beginning of economic development. But without safety and security that does not happen. Safety is being free from molestation in your person and property. Security is believing that you are free from molestation in your person and property. There is a difference. Too often in the last couple of decades, we have turned to the military to fix problems we failed to solve with the other elements of power. I would rather invest in a USAID schools program than deal with the results of a void filled by a madrasa.

Next week in Washington, D.C., the USGLC is hosting a conference to discuss a smart power approach to global leadership. Unfortunately, the reservations are maxed out. It is still possible to tune in to the address by Vice Chairman, JCS, GEN Cartwright’s address streamed on www.usglc.org this Tuesday, July 12 at 9:15 AM. I recommend you check out the address and the organization. War is no longer just an extension of policy by other means (sorry, dead Carl); it is the failure to properly use all the tools available. Dan Nolan

New Global Natgas Abundance Signals Loosening of Putin and Gazprom's Grip on Europe's Energy Security

Have written before several times (usually in the dead of winter) about Europe putting itself in danger by making energy deals with the devil, usually accompanied by a frighteningly cold picture of a frozen over European city or a sinister picture picture of Vlad Putin.

But now it seems like the tables have turned and we won't be discussing that topic any more. My own awareness of the game changing nature of unconventional natural gas began one year ago with this Daniel Yergin editorial in the Wall Street Journal describing massive new amounts of gas now becoming accessible in the US and elsewhere via new recovery techniques.

There is now so much of this new-found natural gas that it's no longer helpful to call it unconventional. Then came a briefing I was fortunate to attend last month at MIT with BP's chief economist, Christof Rühl. Describing the future of global oil and gas markets, and including projections for renewable energy and nuclear, he said the whopper that's changing everything is the recently realized super-abundance of natural gas ... everywhere.

Here then, is the take-away for Gazprom and its ardent admirers:

Seldom has a giant been hit by so many big blows in one year. First, by repeatedly cutting its deliveries without prior warning, Gazprom has acquired a solid reputation as an unreliable supplier. Second, after the United States has suddenly started mass-producing cheap shale gas and become the biggest gas producer in the world, the European market is flooded with new liquefied natural gas (LNG). Third, there is plenty of shale gas in Europe, and soon production is likely to start there as well. Steadily increased European demand for gas has been replaced by a gas glut, which the International Energy Agency predicts will last for 3-5 years. Fourth, the gas surplus is naturally depressing spot gas prices.

And it gets worse. But I'll leave that to you if you're interested. The full article in European Energy Review can be found here. Depending on where you're reading from, I think you may find it a rather pleasant change of pace.

Deloitte Weighs in on Current DOD Energy Situation

Ollie F, and now Karen A have made it plain: this Deloitte energy security report needs its 15 minutes of DOD Energy Blog fame and it needs it now.

I don't want to steal its thunder, but to help you better prioritize your time, here are some of its main focal points:

• Rising Energy Use in Warfare
• Global Oil Supply & Demand
• DOD Energy Consumption
• Potential Threats to Global Oil Infra
• Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel (FBCF) "in Blood and Money"
• Opportunities for Change: Fuel Optimization, Mobility Platform Fuel Optimization, Alternative Fuels & Power Generation

It's all good, and the FBCF part is particularly compelling. Recommend you give it a look.

Afghanistan Convoy Photo Credit: Deloitte

CNAS Links Natural and National Security

Following 2007's CNA report National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, a new CNAS focus area on "Natural Security," makes it clear that acknowledging the connections between natural resources (including but not limited to fossil fuels) is no longer a fringe activity. Here's part of Sharon Burke's take on our limited understanding of the importance of minerals and resource supply chains:

The United States, and this includes for militarily significant systems, does not actually know if we are vulnerable to supply disruptions of some strategically important minerals. Planning for and managing such uncertainty can be a security challenge. Note also that supply chains are physically vulnerable: the entire energy supply and distribution infrastructure – from pipelines to shipping chokepoints to the vast domestic electric grid – is highly vulnerable to sabotage, natural disasters, and disrepair.

The six categories examined are: energy, minerals, water, land, climate change and biodiversity. I think you'll be surprised by the incredible amount of interconnectedness Burke and team uncover across these domains. Here's the great paper, and there's an accompanying blog to boot!

Image: Wikimedia Commons

A New Climate for DOD Climate Discussions

Until now this blog has stayed clear of climate and global warming issues. Haven't viewed that space as particularly helpful (or necessary) for furthering the DOD energy thinking.Well, the climate discussion, replete with pointers to relevant energy vectors, is happening in DOD just the same.

Hat tip to SM at CNA for this link to a great post at Good Blogs that sums up DOD's evolving take on climate issues. This part will give you a feel for where it's coming from ... and where it's going:

This is not, for the sake of this conversation, an environmental issue to be fretted over by effete, knuckle-knawing, liberal arts-educated, coastal types. Rather, it’s a security issue, and you’re going to be talking about war and intelligence and the military and terrorism. (And, by the way, here’s what not to mention: Al Gore, polar bears, Europe, and any celebrity or politician who didn’t play a Terminator.) You can make these arguments because the Pentagon, the CIA, and a veritable cavalcade of other national security experts have already made them for you.

I may not come back to climate again for a while or at all, depending on the role it comes to play in the Department's future energy plans and policy. But it's good to see it's being given some thought by leadership.

Citations from CNA's "Powering America's Defense" Report & Conference

Over the next few days I'm going to feed you a series of nutritious quotes and citations from yesterday's event. The first one is from Senator Richard Lugar, in support of CNA's work:

Energy security is national security. Oil precipitates conflict, it ties the hands of those seeking peace, and it puts the lives of our soldiers at greater risk. I strongly agree with the stark conclusion of CNA's Military Advisory Board (MAB): anyone serious about American military and diplomatic strength must be serious about energy. 

Congress, Senior DOD leadership and the President are increasingly in alignment on energy, as you'll see in subsequent posts from CNA. Stay tuned.

New Energy-Savvy NSC May Wield More Power This Time

Marine General Jim Jones is 1 day away from becoming our new National Security Advisor. Though if this report is accurate, he may quickly transition from advisor to manager if more members are added to the traditional National Security Council (NSC): 

The council currently includes the secretaries of state and defense, the director of national intelligence, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the national security adviser and the president and vice president. "I think the way to think about it is that those individual secretaries and DNI will have important jobs and a tremendous amount of power," Mr. Locher told The Washington Times. "We need something more, though. We need that ability to integrate. We need a manager. Gen. Jones will have to play a more important role than national security advisers have in the past."

As blogged earlier here, Jones brings a heck of a lot more interest in and understanding of energy issues than any of his predecessors. Were he given more power as NSM, he'd likely be able to bring more responsiveness to energy and other national security issues. Thing is, though, the most important energy decisions need to be made now, proactively, before we're in the crisis situations that are just ahead of us.

Photo: Washington Post