Monday, April 22, 2013

The Energy Future on which so much Depends for DOD ... and Everyone Else

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This chart, created by energy futurist Dr. Eric Martinot depicts predictions of the global rate of renewables deployment with the different slopes representing faster and slower rates of adoption.

I had the good fortune of catching Eric's presentation last week at MIT and was thinking how DOD energy planners would benefit from exposure to his work.

So much depends on how this plays out, you know?  National security, global economics, US economics, climate change / severe weather factors, DOD missions and DOD energy assurance. Not a list to be sneezed at.

You can see the more conservative estimates, offered up by large oil companies for example, coming in with renewables maintaining their current 10-15% level of total energy generation in 2050.  That means that despite everything you hear about solar and wind prices coming down and price parity being achieved today in different regions, the conservative orgs don't fear any big disruptions to their business models looming in their world.

The other end of the spectrum includes Greenpeace and other environmentally attuned groups that see a world dominated by renewables 30-40 years from now.  And of course, there's middle ground, where renewables account for 25-40% of the mix by 2050.  That's where I'd place my bets.

You can download Martinot's full 2013 report HERE and follow his periodic updates HERE. But before you leave this topic, want you to notice that Bloomberg (in a separate announcement) is predicting very strong gains with renewables comprising up to 37% of total generation by 2030.

You can also click HERE to read that a group of experts polled recently by the Wall Street Journal couldn't be further apart in their analysis of what the future holds for renewables.

And lastly here's my new friend and self-proclaimed energy futurist Chris Nelder, whose GetRealList website warns ostriches and those with rose colored lenses to "deal with reality or it will deal with you." Some of what Chris sees coming should put the "Fear of God" in those running, investing in, or otherwise depending on large, investor owned electric utilities.

1 comment:


I think it is right, I read book Energy India 2020 gives same vision as IEA estimates