You'll have to sort through some of the variables in your head to imagine future fuel demand implications ... things like:
- how many concurrent, continuous global UAV sorties (40 is the number today)
- how big and heavy are some UAVs going to become
- at what speeds and altitudes will they fly
- will the DOD UAV inventory be counted in the thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands ... or even higher
- will jet fuel remain the primary fuel source
- will new airframe efficiencies (like those described briefly in the previous post) bring a significant reduction in fuel demand per vehicle
The plan that Mathewson produced for the Air Force envisions unmanned planes not only providing surveillance and striking targets, but also hauling cargo around the world. Instead of flying just one plane, a single pilot would probably control as many as four or five planes simultaneously. "If I am doing a surveillance mission where the plane is literally just staring at the ground or at a road for eight or ten hours, I don't need a pilot actively controlling the plane," he said. "So maybe I have a squadron of 40 aircraft but I only have four or five people monitoring them." The Air Force and Mathewson have already demonstrated in training that one pilot can fly as many as four Predators.There are a lot of organizational culture issues in the Post article, and how they play out may be as important in predicting the future as are the technology factors. With so many variables, it's still too early for me to imagine the energy demand consequences. But it's necessary (and a little fun) to think about it now.
Photo Credit: Zach Tumin on Flickr
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